@inproceedings{113ad0f8daec4ef98891b4ac25b04a02,
title = "Two-dimensional Pareto frontier forecasting for technology planning and roadmapping",
abstract = "Technology evolution forecasting based on historical data processing is a useful tool for quantitative analysis in technology planning and roadmapping. While previous efforts focused mainly on one-dimensional forecasting, real technical systems require the evaluation of multiple and conflicting figures of merit at the same time, such as cost and performance. This paper presents a methodology for technology forecasting based on Pareto (efficient) frontier estimation algorithms and multiple regressions in presence of at least two conflicting figures of merits. A tool was developed on the basis of the approach presented in this paper. The methodology is illustrated with a case study from the automotive industry. The paper also shows the validation of the methodology and the estimation of the forecast accuracy adopting a backward testing procedure.",
keywords = "Pareto frontiers, Technology forecasting, Technology planning, Trend extrapolation",
author = "Ilya Yuskevich and Rob Vingerhoeds and Alessandro Golkar",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 IEEE.; 12th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2018 ; Conference date: 24-04-2018 Through 26-04-2018",
year = "2018",
month = may,
day = "30",
doi = "10.1109/SYSCON.2018.8369565",
language = "English",
series = "12th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2018 - Proceedings",
publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",
pages = "1--7",
booktitle = "12th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2018 - Proceedings",
}