TY - GEN
T1 - Towards Physically Consistent Deep Learning For Climate Model Parameterizations
AU - Kühbacher, Birgit
AU - Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando
AU - Kilbertus, Niki
AU - Eyring, Veronika
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 IEEE.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Climate models play a critical role in understanding and projecting climate change. Due to their complexity, their horizontal resolution of about 40-100 km remains too coarse to resolve processes such as clouds and convection, which need to be approximated via parameterizations. These parameterizations are a major source of systematic errors and large uncertainties in climate projections. Deep learning (DL)-based parameterizations, trained on data from computationally expensive short, high- resolution simulations, have shown great promise for improving climate models in that regard. However, their lack of interpretability and tendency to learn spurious non-physical correlations result in reduced trust in the climate simulation. We propose an efficient supervised learning framework for DL- based parameterizations that leads to physically consistent models with improved interpretability and negligible computational overhead compared to standard supervised training. First, key features determining the target physical processes are uncovered. Subsequently, the neural network is fine-tuned using only those relevant features. We show empirically that our method robustly identifies a small subset of the inputs as actual physical drivers, therefore removing spurious non-physical relationships. This results in by design physically consistent and interpretable neural networks while maintaining the predictive performance of unconstrained black-box DL-based parameterizations.
AB - Climate models play a critical role in understanding and projecting climate change. Due to their complexity, their horizontal resolution of about 40-100 km remains too coarse to resolve processes such as clouds and convection, which need to be approximated via parameterizations. These parameterizations are a major source of systematic errors and large uncertainties in climate projections. Deep learning (DL)-based parameterizations, trained on data from computationally expensive short, high- resolution simulations, have shown great promise for improving climate models in that regard. However, their lack of interpretability and tendency to learn spurious non-physical correlations result in reduced trust in the climate simulation. We propose an efficient supervised learning framework for DL- based parameterizations that leads to physically consistent models with improved interpretability and negligible computational overhead compared to standard supervised training. First, key features determining the target physical processes are uncovered. Subsequently, the neural network is fine-tuned using only those relevant features. We show empirically that our method robustly identifies a small subset of the inputs as actual physical drivers, therefore removing spurious non-physical relationships. This results in by design physically consistent and interpretable neural networks while maintaining the predictive performance of unconstrained black-box DL-based parameterizations.
KW - climate modeling
KW - deep learning
KW - interpretability
KW - physical consistency
KW - subgrid parameterization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105000936031&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/ICMLA61862.2024.00044
DO - 10.1109/ICMLA61862.2024.00044
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:105000936031
T3 - Proceedings - 2024 International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2024
SP - 280
EP - 287
BT - Proceedings - 2024 International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2024
A2 - Wani, M. Arif
A2 - Angelov, Plamen
A2 - Luo, Feng
A2 - Ogihara, Mitsunori
A2 - Wu, Xintao
A2 - Precup, Radu-Emil
A2 - Ramezani, Ramin
A2 - Gu, Xiaowei
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 23rd IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2024
Y2 - 18 December 2024 through 20 December 2024
ER -