TY - JOUR
T1 - The influence of the oil price on timber supply
AU - Härtl, Fabian
AU - Knoke, Thomas
N1 - Funding Information:
The study presented here is part of the project G33 “Competition for wood: Ecological, social and economic effects of the material and energy utilization of wood” funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry , and as project 22009411 by the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection. The authors wish to thank Bernhard Bösch for his patient support in using WEHAM, Laura Carlson for the language editing of the manuscript, and two anonymous reviewers for the valuable suggestions.
PY - 2014/2
Y1 - 2014/2
N2 - The world is dependent on oil, as economy relies on a constant oil supply. Therefore, other markets seem to be influenced by the oil market. Recent developments in timber prices - for example, rising fuelwood prices - as well as shifts in supply and demand on the timber markets are an indication of this influence on that particular market. This paper uses oil price scenarios to investigate the effects of this influence on timber supply. Oil price scenarios were developed and connected to timber price scenarios. These scenarios then acted as input variables to felling plans for forest enterprises. The link between timber price and planning decision was established by calculating financially optimized management scenarios using the risk-sensitive planning support tool, YAFO. To analyze these effects at a general level, 54 hypothetical forest enterprises were built from forest inventory data of Bavaria, Germany. Every enterprise's management plan was optimized separately under both a base scenario with constant timber prices, and a scenario based on predicted moderate oil price increases. Comparing the results of the scenario analysis showed significant changes in timber supply and grading ratios, tending towards an increase in wood graded for energy use with rising oil and timber prices.
AB - The world is dependent on oil, as economy relies on a constant oil supply. Therefore, other markets seem to be influenced by the oil market. Recent developments in timber prices - for example, rising fuelwood prices - as well as shifts in supply and demand on the timber markets are an indication of this influence on that particular market. This paper uses oil price scenarios to investigate the effects of this influence on timber supply. Oil price scenarios were developed and connected to timber price scenarios. These scenarios then acted as input variables to felling plans for forest enterprises. The link between timber price and planning decision was established by calculating financially optimized management scenarios using the risk-sensitive planning support tool, YAFO. To analyze these effects at a general level, 54 hypothetical forest enterprises were built from forest inventory data of Bavaria, Germany. Every enterprise's management plan was optimized separately under both a base scenario with constant timber prices, and a scenario based on predicted moderate oil price increases. Comparing the results of the scenario analysis showed significant changes in timber supply and grading ratios, tending towards an increase in wood graded for energy use with rising oil and timber prices.
KW - Economic optimization
KW - Forest management planning
KW - Nonlinear programming
KW - Operational planning
KW - Risk integration
KW - Timber price model
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84891688323
U2 - 10.1016/j.forpol.2013.11.001
DO - 10.1016/j.forpol.2013.11.001
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84891688323
SN - 1389-9341
VL - 39
SP - 32
EP - 42
JO - Forest Policy and Economics
JF - Forest Policy and Economics
ER -