That seems to be promising! - Predicting opportunity evaluation by means of situational characteristics and individual cognitions

In an experimental scenario study, we tested the influence of situational characteristics and individuals' cognitive appraisal on the entrepreneurial evaluation of the situation. We manipulated potential profit margin, time to profit, personal investment and probability of success on two levels each, thus, resulting in a fully crossed 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 design with independent measures. Moreover, we assessed two pivotal cognitive appraisals of the situation, namely primary appraisal (i.e., the extent to which the event is relevant for and in accordance with personal goals) and secondary appraisal (i.e., the extent to which the individual perceives himself to be able to master a potential failure within the situation). Multiple regression results indicated a significant influence of profit margin and probability of success of a given opportunity on entrepreneurial evaluation. Moreover, (situation-specific) primary and secondary appraisal emerged as incrementally significant predictors. Results indicate additive predictive value of situational variables and psychological indicators of person-situation-fit.