Solid versus Liquid—A Bottom-Up Calculation Model to Analyze the Manufacturing Cost of Future High-Energy Batteries

All-solid-state batteries (ASSB) are promising candidates for future energy storage. However, only a little is known about the manufacturing costs for industrial production. Herein, a detailed bottom-up calculation is performed to estimate the required investment and to facilitate comparison with conventional lithium-ion batteries (LIB). Results indicate that sulfide-based ASSBs can indeed be competitive if the material compatibility issues can be solved and production is successfully scaled. In contrast, oxide-based ASSBs will probably not be able to compete if cost is the decisive factor. A sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo simulation reveals that the inert gas atmosphere required for sulfide-based ASSBs contributes little to the overall cell costs, whereas the sintering step for oxide-based ASSBs is highly critical. The calculation also indicates that in-house manufacturing of the lithium anode will be cheaper than purchasing the lithium foil externally if the cell producer has sufficient processing know-how. Finally, the aerosol deposition method is investigated, revealing that a deposition rate far above 1000 mm³ min⁻¹ would be required to make the technology economically feasible in ASSB production. The results of this study will help researchers and industry prioritize development efforts and push the scale-up of future high-energy batteries with improved performance.