Simulation-based evaluation of evacuation effectiveness using driving behavior sensitivity analysis

Worldwide, man-made or natural phenomena occasionally occur that create emergency conditions and require the evacuation of areas of different sizes and characteristics. Drivers’ behavior becomes a very important factor for the evacuation operations. This paper provides an analytical study of the effectiveness of evacuation according to drivers’ behavior, using the sensitivity analysis method. Collecting real-time data about this factor is a difficult to impossible task for large scale cases; therefore, traffic simulation is the most appropriate method for analysis. Our goal is to investigate how drivers’ aggressiveness affects the evacuation effectiveness. In this case, we used the AIMSUN traffic simulation model; the parameters of the driver behavior models are chosen through all-at-once sensitivity analysis of the parameters. This model is applied to different demand scenarios for well-defined parameters’ value ranges. This investigation produces estimated ranges of the evacuation duration and the number of evacuated people, both for a baseline “do-nothing” scenario, as well as the outcome of improvement actions. The sensitivity analysis results suggest that evacuation time can be significantly reduced by reversing the most congested links; furthermore, the use of a bus fleet would allow many more people to evacuate the danger zone timely, albeit with a small increase in minimum evacuation time. This methodology could be applicable to other emergency response scenarios, as it obviates the need for real-time data.