Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Bing Liu, Senthold Asseng, Christoph Müller, Frank Ewert, Joshua Elliott, David B. Lobell, Pierre Martre, Alex C. Ruane, Daniel Wallach, James W. Jones, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Phillip D. Alderman, Jakarat Anothai, Bruno Basso, Christian Biernath, Davide Cammarano, Andy Challinor, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De SanctisJordi Doltra, Elias Fereres, Christian Folberth, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Sebastian Gayler, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Leslie A. Hunt, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Mohamed Jabloun, Curtis D. Jones, Kurt C. Kersebaum, Bruce A. Kimball, Ann Kristin Koehler, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J. O'Leary, Jørgen E. Olesen, Michael J. Ottman, Taru Palosuo, P. V.Vara Prasad, Eckart Priesack, Thomas A.M. Pugh, Matthew Reynolds, Ehsan E. Rezaei, Reimund P. Rötter, Erwin Schmid, Mikhail A. Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Elke Stehfest, Claudio O. Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Peter Thorburn, Katharina Waha, Gerard W. Wall, Enli Wang, Jeffrey W. White, Joost Wolf, Zhigan Zhao, Yan Zhu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

366 Scopus citations


The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1130-1136
Number of pages7
JournalNature Climate Change
Issue number12
StatePublished - 24 Nov 2016
Externally publishedYes


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