TY - GEN
T1 - Seismic reliability assessment of infrastructure systems based on fragility models
AU - Straub, Daniel
AU - Der Kiureghian, Armen
PY - 2007
Y1 - 2007
N2 - Fragility models are widely used to describe the performance of components of infrastructure systems subject to earthquakes. Because the models cannot account for all variables involved in the physical process and because their parameters are estimated from a limited set of observations, they are subject to uncertainty. This uncertainty introduces statistical dependence among the model predications for individual components, which has been neglected in past applications. As demonstrated in this paper, this can lead to significant over-estimation of the reliability of redundant infrastructure systems. Here, a hierarchical regression model that accounts for statistical dependence among observations is applied to represent seismic fragility of equipment items in electrical substations. The resulting fragility estimates are compared to those obtained with conventional models. For redundant systems, differences of one to two orders of magnitude in the resulting probabilities of failure are observed.
AB - Fragility models are widely used to describe the performance of components of infrastructure systems subject to earthquakes. Because the models cannot account for all variables involved in the physical process and because their parameters are estimated from a limited set of observations, they are subject to uncertainty. This uncertainty introduces statistical dependence among the model predications for individual components, which has been neglected in past applications. As demonstrated in this paper, this can lead to significant over-estimation of the reliability of redundant infrastructure systems. Here, a hierarchical regression model that accounts for statistical dependence among observations is applied to represent seismic fragility of equipment items in electrical substations. The resulting fragility estimates are compared to those obtained with conventional models. For redundant systems, differences of one to two orders of magnitude in the resulting probabilities of failure are observed.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84858064167&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84858064167
SN - 9780415451345
T3 - Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering - Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability, ICASP10
SP - 435
EP - 436
BT - 10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability, ICASP10
T2 - 10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability, ICASP10
Y2 - 31 July 2007 through 3 August 2007
ER -