Seismic reliability assessment of infrastructure systems based on fragility models

Daniel Straub, Armen Der Kiureghian

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Fragility models are widely used to describe the performance of components of infrastructure systems subject to earthquakes. Because the models cannot account for all variables involved in the physical process and because their parameters are estimated from a limited set of observations, they are subject to uncertainty. This uncertainty introduces statistical dependence among the model predications for individual components, which has been neglected in past applications. As demonstrated in this paper, this can lead to significant over-estimation of the reliability of redundant infrastructure systems. Here, a hierarchical regression model that accounts for statistical dependence among observations is applied to represent seismic fragility of equipment items in electrical substations. The resulting fragility estimates are compared to those obtained with conventional models. For redundant systems, differences of one to two orders of magnitude in the resulting probabilities of failure are observed.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability, ICASP10
Pages435-436
Number of pages2
StatePublished - 2007
Externally publishedYes
Event10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability, ICASP10 - Tokyo, Japan
Duration: 31 Jul 20073 Aug 2007

Publication series

NameApplications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering - Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability, ICASP10

Conference

Conference10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability, ICASP10
Country/TerritoryJapan
CityTokyo
Period31/07/073/08/07

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