Real-Time Tracer Dispersion Simulations in Oklahoma City Using the Locally Mesh-Refined Lattice Boltzmann Method

We present ensemble-based large-eddy simulations based on a lattice Boltzmann method for a realistic urban area. A plume-dispersion model enables a real-time simulation over several kilometres by applying a local mesh-refinement method. We assess plume-dispersion problems in the complex urban environment of Oklahoma City on 16 July using realistic mesoscale velocity boundary conditions produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting model, as well as building structures and a plant-canopy model introduced into the plume-dispersion model. Ensemble calculations are performed to reduce uncertainties in the macroscale boundary conditions due to turbulence, which cannot be determined by the mesoscale model. The statistics of the plume-dispersion field, as well as mean and maximum concentrations, show that ensemble calculations improve the accuracy of the simulations. Factor-of-2 agreement is found between the ensemble-averaged concentrations based on the simulations over a 4.2 × 4.2 × 2.5 km² area with 2-m resolution with the plume-dispersion model and the observations.