TY - GEN
T1 - Quantifying probabilities of exceeding the maximum mach number in cruise flight using operational flight data
AU - Drees, L.
AU - Siegel, J.
AU - Koppitz, P.
AU - Holzapfel, F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - We present a novel approach that enables a single airline to quantify its probability of exceeding the maximum Mach number in cruise flight, a so-called Mach burst event, using the airline’s operational flight data. First, an incident model is developed that includes the physics-based relationships between aircraft-specific and environmental factors that determine the current aircraft’s Mach number. The statistics of the environmental factors, specifically changes in air temperature and wind speed, are compiled. We model dependencies between changes in air temperature and wind speed with copulas. Then, we use the incident model to determine critical gradients of air temperature and wind speed that cause a Mach burst. By sampling from the copulas that describe the occurrence probability for various gradients combinations, we estimate the probability of experiencing a Mach burst.
AB - We present a novel approach that enables a single airline to quantify its probability of exceeding the maximum Mach number in cruise flight, a so-called Mach burst event, using the airline’s operational flight data. First, an incident model is developed that includes the physics-based relationships between aircraft-specific and environmental factors that determine the current aircraft’s Mach number. The statistics of the environmental factors, specifically changes in air temperature and wind speed, are compiled. We model dependencies between changes in air temperature and wind speed with copulas. Then, we use the incident model to determine critical gradients of air temperature and wind speed that cause a Mach burst. By sampling from the copulas that describe the occurrence probability for various gradients combinations, we estimate the probability of experiencing a Mach burst.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061354069&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1201/9781315210469-7
DO - 10.1201/9781315210469-7
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85061354069
SN - 9781138629370
T3 - Safety and Reliability - Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
SP - 45
EP - 50
BT - Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
A2 - Cepin, Marko
A2 - Briš, Radim
PB - CRC Press/Balkema
T2 - 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
Y2 - 18 June 2017 through 22 June 2017
ER -