Quantification and Propagation of Uncertainties in Identification of Flame Impulse Response for Thermoacoustic Stability Analysis

The thermoacoustic behavior of a combustion system can be determined numerically via acoustic tools such as Helmholtz solvers or network models coupled with a model for the flame dynamic response. Within such a framework, the flame response to flow perturbations can be described by a finite impulse response (FIR) model, which can be derived from large eddy simulation (LES) time series via system identification. However, the estimated FIR model will inevitably contain uncertainties due to, e.g., the statistical nature of the identification process, low signal-to-noise ratio, or finite length of time series. Thus, a necessary step toward reliable thermoacoustic stability analysis is to quantify the impact of uncertainties in FIR model on the growth rate of thermoacoustic modes. There are two practical considerations involved in this topic. First, how to efficiently propagate uncertainties from the FIR model to the modal growth rate of the system, considering it is a high dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) problem? Second, since longer computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation time generally leads to less uncertain FIR model identification, how to determine the length of the CFD simulation required to obtain satisfactory confidence? To address the two issues, a dimensional reduction UQ methodology called "Active subspace approach (ASA)" is employed in the present study. For the first question, ASA is applied to exploit a low-dimensional approximation of the original system, which allows accelerated UQ analysis. Good agreement with Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates the accuracy of the method. For the second question, a procedure based on ASA is proposed, which can serve as an indicator for terminating CFD simulation. The effectiveness of the procedure is verified in the paper.