Proposal for a multifactorial prognostic score that accurately classifies 3 groups of gastric carcinoma patients with different outcomes after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery

OBJECTIVE: We have developed a multifactorial histopathological prognostic score (PRSC) for patients with gastric cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy before surgery for the accurate discrimination of patient subgroups with differing outcomes. BACKGROUND: For patients with gastric cancer who undergo multimodal treatment, the postoperative staging classifications used for nontreated tumors may not accurately predict patient prognosis. METHODS: We evaluated 428 gastric carcinoma specimens after a cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The factors for the Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC/AJCC) ypT-category, ypN-category, and histopathological tumor regression were assigned a value from 1 to 3 as follows: ypT0 to 2 = 1 point; ypT3 = 2 points; ypT4 = 3 points; ypN0 = 1 point; ypN1 to 2 = 2 points; ypN3a to 3b = 3 points; less than 10% residual tumor per tumor bed = 1 point; 10% to 50% residual tumor per tumor bed = 2 points; and greater than 50% residual tumor per tumor bed = 3 points. A 3-tiered PRSC based on the sum value was established (group A: 3-4 points; group B: 5-7 points; group C: 8-9 points) and was found to correlate with patient prognosis. RESULTS: The PRSC showed a clear discrimination of 3 significantly different prognostic groups (group A: 76 patients; group B: 210 patients; group C: 142 patients; P < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, including the completeness of resection, tumor diameter, lymphatic vessel invasion, tumor grading, and Lauren classification, the PRSC was the only independent prognostic factor for overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.03; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.49-2.78; P < 0.001). It was slightly superior to the UICC/AJCC staging system (HR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.20-2.27; P = 0.002) when analyzed with tumor regression as an additional independent factor (HR = 1.27; 95% CI, 1.01-1.62; P = 0.044) included in the analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed PRSC reveals the most accurate prediction of survival for patients with gastric carcinoma after neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. The PRSC clearly identifies 3 subgroups with different prognoses and may be helpful for therapeutic decisions.