Probability Based Heuristic for Predictive Business Process Monitoring

Kristof Böhmer, Stefanie Rinderle-Ma

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

Predictive business process monitoring concerns the unfolding of ongoing process instance executions. Recent work in this area frequently applies “blackbox” like methods which, despite delivering high quality prediction results, fail to implement a transparent and understandable prediction generation process, likely, limiting the trust users put into the results. This work tackles this limitation by basing prediction and the related prediction models on well known probability based histogram like approaches. Those enable to quickly grasp, and potentially visualise the prediction results, various alternative futures, and the overall prediction process. Furthermore, the proposed heuristic prediction approach outperforms state-of-the-art approaches with respect to prediction accuracy. This conclusion is drawn based on a publicly available prototypical implementation, real life logs from multiple sources and domains, along with a comparison with multiple alternative approaches.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationOn the Move to Meaningful Internet Systems. OTM 2018 Conferences - Confederated International Conferences
Subtitle of host publicationCoopIS, C and TC, and ODBASE 2018, Proceedings
EditorsHenderik A. Proper, Robert Meersman, Claudio Agostino Ardagna, Hervé Panetto, Christophe Debruyne, Dumitru Roman
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages78-96
Number of pages19
ISBN (Print)9783030026097
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018
Externally publishedYes
EventConfederated International Conferences: Cooperative Information Systems, CoopIS 2018, Ontologies, Databases, and Applications of Semantics, ODBASE 2018, and Cloud and Trusted Computing, C and TC, held as part of OTM 2018 - Valletta, Malta
Duration: 22 Oct 201826 Oct 2018

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume11229 LNCS
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

ConferenceConfederated International Conferences: Cooperative Information Systems, CoopIS 2018, Ontologies, Databases, and Applications of Semantics, ODBASE 2018, and Cloud and Trusted Computing, C and TC, held as part of OTM 2018
Country/TerritoryMalta
CityValletta
Period22/10/1826/10/18

Keywords

  • Business process
  • Predictive monitoring
  • Probability

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