Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

on behalf of the PROG-IMT Study Group

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0191172

Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

on behalf of the PROG-IMT Study Group

Department of Neurology

Johann Wolfgang Goethe University
Cambridge Biomedical Campus
University of Milan
Bassini Hospital
U970
University Medical Center
National Taiwan University Hospital
The University of Edinburgh Medical School
University of Gothenburg
University of Kuopio
Istituto di Ricovero e Cura A Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS)
University Medicine Greifswald
Tulane University
Uppsala University
Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine
Maastricht University
Medical University Innsbruck
University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine
Tufts University School of Medicine
Benedictus Hospital Tutzing & Feldafing
Mailman School of Public Health
Erasmus University Medical Center
UIT The Arctic University of Norway
University Hospital of North Norway
University Hospital Basel
Ospedale Niguarda Ca' Granda
Parcelsus Medical University
Christian-Doppler-Klinik
Clínica Universitaria de Navarra
University Hospital Malmö
Hospital Universitario de la Princesa
Federico II
Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University
Robarts Research Institute
Univ. René Descartes
Johannes Gutenberg University
University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf
Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance
Vrije Universiteit Medical Centre
University of Miami Miller School of Medicine
Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University
IRCCS-MultiMedica
University Paris-Sud
National Taiwan University
Tulane University Medical School
Tokyo Women’s Medical University
Klinikum Kreis Herford
Technical University of Munich
Instituto de Salud Carlos III
Imagelabonline & Cardiovascular
Amsterdam University Medical Centers
University Medical Center Utrecht
University of Washington

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

59 Scopus citations

Abstract

Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

Original language	English
Article number	e0191172
Journal	PLoS ONE
Volume	13
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191172
State	Published - Apr 2018

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10.1371/journal.pone.0191172

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@article{4f1074a4a63d4ff79f33876c90e7a95e,

title = "Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration",

abstract = "Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95\% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.",

author = "\{on behalf of the PROG-IMT Study Group\} and Lorenz, \{Matthias W.\} and Lu Gao and Kathrin Ziegelbauer and Norata, \{Giuseppe Danilo\} and Empana, \{Jean Philippe\} and Irene Schmidtmann and Lin, \{Hung Ju\} and Stela McLachlan and Lena Bokemark and Kimmo Ronkainen and Mauro Amato and Ulf Schminke and Srinivasan, \{Sathanur R.\} and Lars Lind and Shuhei Okazaki and Stehouwer, \{Coen D.A.\} and Peter Willeit and Polak, \{Joseph F.\} and Helmuth Steinmetz and Dirk Sander and Holger Poppert and Moise Desvarieux and \{Arfan Ikram\}, M. and Johnsen, \{Stein Harald\} and Daniel Staub and Sirtori, \{Cesare R.\} and Bernhard Iglseder and Oscar Beloqui and Gunnar Engstr{\"o}m and Alfonso Friera and Francesco Rozza and Wuxiang Xie and Grace Parraga and Liliana Grigore and Matthieu Plichart and Stefan Blankenberg and Su, \{Ta Chen\} and Caroline Schmidt and Tuomainen, \{Tomi Pekka\} and Fabrizio Veglia and Henry V{\"o}lzke and Giel Nijpels and Johann Willeit and Sacco, \{Ralph L.\} and Franco, \{Oscar H.\} and Heiko Uthoff and Bo Hedblad and Carmen Suarez and Raffaele Izzo and Dong Zhao",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 Lorenz et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.",

year = "2018",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0191172",

language = "English",

volume = "13",

journal = "PLoS ONE",

issn = "1932-6203",

publisher = "Public Library of Science",

number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

AU - on behalf of the PROG-IMT Study Group

AU - Lorenz, Matthias W.

AU - Gao, Lu

AU - Ziegelbauer, Kathrin

AU - Norata, Giuseppe Danilo

AU - Empana, Jean Philippe

AU - Schmidtmann, Irene

AU - Lin, Hung Ju

AU - McLachlan, Stela

AU - Bokemark, Lena

AU - Ronkainen, Kimmo

AU - Amato, Mauro

AU - Schminke, Ulf

AU - Srinivasan, Sathanur R.

AU - Lind, Lars

AU - Okazaki, Shuhei

AU - Stehouwer, Coen D.A.

AU - Willeit, Peter

AU - Polak, Joseph F.

AU - Steinmetz, Helmuth

AU - Sander, Dirk

AU - Poppert, Holger

AU - Desvarieux, Moise

AU - Arfan Ikram, M.

AU - Johnsen, Stein Harald

AU - Staub, Daniel

AU - Sirtori, Cesare R.

AU - Iglseder, Bernhard

AU - Beloqui, Oscar

AU - Engström, Gunnar

AU - Friera, Alfonso

AU - Rozza, Francesco

AU - Xie, Wuxiang

AU - Parraga, Grace

AU - Grigore, Liliana

AU - Plichart, Matthieu

AU - Blankenberg, Stefan

AU - Su, Ta Chen

AU - Schmidt, Caroline

AU - Tuomainen, Tomi Pekka

AU - Veglia, Fabrizio

AU - Völzke, Henry

AU - Nijpels, Giel

AU - Willeit, Johann

AU - Sacco, Ralph L.

AU - Franco, Oscar H.

AU - Uthoff, Heiko

AU - Hedblad, Bo

AU - Suarez, Carmen

AU - Izzo, Raffaele

AU - Zhao, Dong

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2018 Lorenz et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

PY - 2018/4

Y1 - 2018/4

N2 - Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

AB - Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85045439183

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0191172

DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0191172

M3 - Article

C2 - 29649236

AN - SCOPUS:85045439183

SN - 1932-6203

VL - 13

JO - PLoS ONE

JF - PLoS ONE

IS - 4

M1 - e0191172

ER -

Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

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