Predicting individual survival after gastric cancer resection: Validation of a U.S.-derived nomogram at a single high-volume center in Europe

Alexander R. Novotny, Christoph Schuhmacher, Raymonde Busch, Michael W. Kattan, Murray F. Brennan, Jörg Rüdiger Siewert

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

95 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objective: Validation of a U.S.-derived nomogram for individual prediction of disease-specific gastric cancer survival at a European institution. Summary Background Data: One major issue of modern cancer treatment is the individualization of therapy. For gastric cancer, Kattan et al, at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, developed a nomogram, allowing to predict individual patient risk of tumor-related death after RO resection from basic patient-related variables. The validity of the nomogram has not yet been shown in patients from other institutions. The accuracy of the nomogram when applied to patients after having undergone RO gastric cancer resection at a European high-volume center was investigated. Methods: Clinical data from patients who underwent RO gastric cancer resection at Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Germany and fitted the respective derivation criteria were used for external validation (n = 862). Nomogram predictions for 60- and 108-month disease-specific survival were calculated for each patient and compared with actual survival. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure. Results: The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.77 and was superior when compared with the predictive ability of International Union Against Cancer tumor stage (P < 0.008). Nomogram calibration was excellent for 60-month disease-specific survival. Nomogram predictions showed the trend to underestimate survival in stage II/III disease of the MRI patients. Conclusions: The use of the nomogram created by Kattan et al is not only confined to the institution where it was created, but it can be adopted by other institutions with similar surgical strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)74-81
Number of pages8
JournalAnnals of Surgery
Volume243
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2006

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Predicting individual survival after gastric cancer resection: Validation of a U.S.-derived nomogram at a single high-volume center in Europe'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this