Optimizing water allocation under uncertain system conditions for water and agriculture future scenarios in alfeios river basin (Greece)-Part B: Fuzzy-boundary intervals combined with multi-stage stochastic programming model

Eleni Bekri, Markus Disse, Panayotis Yannopoulos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

25 Scopus citations

Abstract

Optimal water allocation within a river basin still remains a great modeling challenge for engineers due to various hydrosystem complexities, parameter uncertainties and their interactions. Conventional deterministic optimization approaches have given their place to stochastic, fuzzy and interval-parameter programming approaches and their hybrid combinations for overcoming these difficulties. In many countries, including Mediterranean countries, water resources management is characterized by uncertain, imprecise and limited data because of the absence of permanent measuring systems, inefficient river monitoring and fragmentation of authority responsibilities. A fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology developed by Li et al. (2010) is selected and applied in the Alfeios river basin (Greece) for optimal water allocation under uncertain system conditions. This methodology combines an ordinary multi-stage stochastic programming with uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-boundary intervals. Upper- and lower-bound solution intervals for optimized water allocation targets and probabilistic water allocations and shortages are estimated under a baseline scenario and four water and agricultural policy future scenarios for an optimistic and a pessimistic attitude of the decision makers. In this work, the uncertainty of the random water inflows is incorporated through the simultaneous generation of stochastic equal-probability hydrologic scenarios at various inflow positions instead of using a scenario-tree approach in the original methodology.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)6427-6466
Number of pages40
JournalWater (Switzerland)
Volume7
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Keywords

  • Future scenarios
  • Fuzzy
  • Interval bounds
  • Optimal water allocation
  • Stochastic hydrologic scenarios
  • Uncertainty

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Optimizing water allocation under uncertain system conditions for water and agriculture future scenarios in alfeios river basin (Greece)-Part B: Fuzzy-boundary intervals combined with multi-stage stochastic programming model'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this