Modellierung des Biomassezuwachses an bayerischen Waldklimastationen unter gegebenen und möglichen zukünftigen Klimabedingungen

Translated title of the contribution: Modelling biomass increment of Bavarian forest monitoring plots under present and possible future climate conditions

T. Rötzer, Y. Liao, D. Klein, L. Zimmermann, C. Schulz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Forestry is already influenced by changed climatic conditions, especially through changed precipitation patterns and increased temperature. The effects of climate change on forest growth must be estimated in order to obtain stable forests for the future. In addition to general information like tree species distribution models for the site-species matching, models are required which are able to predict future growth potentials for different tree species. The individual tree based growth model BALANCE is able to predict the consequences of changed environmental conditions on biomass production. This model was applied to the five Bavarian forest monitoring plots (WKS) Freising, Flossenbürg, Altdorf, Riedenburg and Würzburg where spruce, pine, beech and oak trees are growing. Biomass development was modelled for the period 1999 to 2009 as well as for future climate conditions. A comparison of the biomass values, which were calculated on base of breast height diameter and tree height, with the results of the model calculations shows that BALANCE is able to realistically simulate the biomass development of the WKS stands (Fig. 4 und 5). The maximum deviation between modeled and empirically derived values was 6.7% (Altdorf, pine). The results for the climate scenario Alb (dry and moist, respectively) showed a decrease of the biomass production at all five WKS, the level of decrease, however, varied clearly with the WKS. The highest decrease was found at the WKS Freising with-18 % and the lowest decrease at the WKS Riedenburg with -1.3% (Fig. 8). A outcome of the analysis of the scenario simulation was that reasons for the different changes are complex and depend strongly on the site characteristics for each single stand (Tab. 3). For example, the climatic conditions for the high-elevation WKS Flossenbürg had improved in the scenarios due to higher temperature, longer growing seasons and a better water supply. In contrast, climatic changes in Freising cause decreased leaf biomass values and a reduced water-use efficiency which cannot be completely compensated by a longer growing season. This finally led to decreased biomass increments. Additionally to the impact of climatic changes future studies should also include the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration when modeling forest growth in the face of climate change.

Translated title of the contributionModelling biomass increment of Bavarian forest monitoring plots under present and possible future climate conditions
Original languageGerman
Pages (from-to)263-277
Number of pages15
JournalAllgemeine Forst- und Jagdzeitung
Volume184
Issue number11-12
StatePublished - 2013

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