Abstract
The history of scenario-writing and its variants is presented. The proposal is to apply the 〉scenario-approach〈 developed by Battelle/Frankfurt 1982, for valuing the effects and consequences of the forest dieback. According to the scenario moderator instructions, 15 experts and decision-makers write within 2-4 workshops up to 5 scenarios for the surrounding fields and the dieback problem. By doing so, the time expenditure is estimated to be 20 to 60 man-weeks at a cost of 120 000 Deutsch Marks. Within this context the problems in writing such scenarios are amply discussed. Despite of these difficulties, it can be expected that such scenarios can make a valuable contribution in formulating actions and plans against the forest dieback.
| Translated title of the contribution | Possibilities and limitations of applying scenario-writing for estimating the effects of forest dieback |
|---|---|
| Original language | German |
| Pages (from-to) | 164-170 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Forstwissenschaftliches Centralblatt |
| Volume | 103 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 1984 |
| Externally published | Yes |