TY - JOUR
T1 - Linking palaeoenvironmental data and models to understand the past and to predict the future
AU - Anderson, N. John
AU - Bugmann, Harald
AU - Dearing, John A.
AU - Gaillard, Marie José
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors acknowledge discussions with other colleagues at a recent workshop held in Buellton, California, for the IGBP-PAGES Focus 5 Programme ‘Past Ecological Processes and Human-Environment Interactions’. M.J.G. thanks Shinya Sugita, Anna Broström and Sofie Hellman for discussions and access to unpublished data, and the funding agencies VR (Swedish Research Council) and Nordforsk (the Nordic Research Council). We are grateful to Steve Juggins for assistance with Figure 3 and the anonymous reviewers for comments.
PY - 2006/12
Y1 - 2006/12
N2 - Complex, process-based dynamic models are used to attempt to mimic the intrinsic variability of the natural environment, ecosystem functioning and, ultimately, to predict future change. Palaeoecological data provide the means for understanding past ecosystem change and are the main source of information for validating long-term model behaviour. As global ecosystems become increasingly stressed by, for example, climate change, human activities and invasive species, there is an even greater need to learn from the past and to strengthen links between models and palaeoecological data. Using examples from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, we suggest that better interactions between modellers and palaeoecologists can help understand the complexity of past changes. With increased synergy between the two approaches, there will be a better understanding of past and present environmental change and, hence, an improvement in our ability to predict future changes.
AB - Complex, process-based dynamic models are used to attempt to mimic the intrinsic variability of the natural environment, ecosystem functioning and, ultimately, to predict future change. Palaeoecological data provide the means for understanding past ecosystem change and are the main source of information for validating long-term model behaviour. As global ecosystems become increasingly stressed by, for example, climate change, human activities and invasive species, there is an even greater need to learn from the past and to strengthen links between models and palaeoecological data. Using examples from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, we suggest that better interactions between modellers and palaeoecologists can help understand the complexity of past changes. With increased synergy between the two approaches, there will be a better understanding of past and present environmental change and, hence, an improvement in our ability to predict future changes.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33751018239&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.005
DO - 10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.005
M3 - Review article
C2 - 17000023
AN - SCOPUS:33751018239
SN - 0169-5347
VL - 21
SP - 696
EP - 704
JO - Trends in Ecology and Evolution
JF - Trends in Ecology and Evolution
IS - 12
ER -
