Leveraging Bayesian methods for addressing multi-uncertainty in data-driven seismic liquefaction assessment

When assessing seismic liquefaction potential with data-driven models, addressing the uncertainties of establishing models, interpreting cone penetration tests (CPT) data and decision threshold is crucial for avoiding biased data selection, ameliorating overconfident models, and being flexible to varying practical objectives, especially when the training and testing data are not identically distributed. A workflow characterized by leveraging Bayesian methodology was proposed to address these issues. Employing a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) as the foundational model, this approach was benchmarked against empirical methods and advanced algorithms for its efficacy in simplicity, accuracy, and resistance to overfitting. The analysis revealed that, while MLP models optimized via maximum a posteriori algorithm suffices for straightforward scenarios, Bayesian neural networks showed great potential for preventing overfitting. Additionally, integrating decision thresholds through various evaluative principles offers insights for challenging decisions. Two case studies demonstrate the framework's capacity for nuanced interpretation of in situ data, employing a model committee for a detailed evaluation of liquefaction potential via Monte Carlo simulations and basic statistics. Overall, the proposed step-by-step workflow for analyzing seismic liquefaction incorporates multifold testing and real-world data validation, showing improved robustness against overfitting and greater versatility in addressing practical challenges. This research contributes to the seismic liquefaction assessment field by providing a structured, adaptable methodology for accurate and reliable analysis.