Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation

Johannes Michelmann, Ulrike Schmalz, Axel Becker, Florian Stroh, Sebastian Behnke, Mirko Hornung

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations


This paper develops three scenarios for the aviation industry's recovery from COVID-19 until 2030 by utilizing the scenario methodology. Besides the short- and mid-term pandemic development, the study takes into account the industry's adaptation to changes in the market environment, e.g., toward sustainability and hygiene requirements. The resulting scenarios include the expected point in time of full air traffic recovery to pre-crisis levels. Subsequent implications suggest that most COVID-19-related hygiene measures along the travel chain disappear after the pandemic is contained. Some measures might serve as a differentiator between airline business models, while others are expected to become a new standard. Implications for environmental awareness and resulting operational and technical measures include changes in society's attitude toward traveling post-pandemic, especially in light of varying levels of environmental awareness. The presented scenarios help to identify the range of plausible development paths, thus building the basis for future model-based research.

Original languageEnglish
Article number102325
JournalJournal of Air Transport Management
StatePublished - Jan 2023


  • COVID-19
  • Future air travel
  • Post-COVID air travel
  • Scenario development


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