Abstract
Objective: To independently validate the predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model for intensive care requirement in unselected poisoned patients. Method: Retrospective chart review of 293 poisoned patients. The Tanta University Risk Model was calculated as follows: Tanta University Risk Model = −1.966*Glasgow Coma Scale − 0.329*oxygen saturation − 0.212*diastolic blood pressure + 0.27*respiratory rate − 0.33*standard bicarbonate. It was then compared to a composite endpoint indicating an intensive care unit requirement (death in hospital, vasopressors, need for intubation). Results: Nineteen of 293 patients had a complicated clinical course as defined by meeting the primary endpoint definition. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed the area under the curve to be 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.73–0.83). A positive Tanta University Risk Model was defined >−73.46. Fifteen out of 84 patients with a positive Tanta University Risk Model had a complicated course, while four of 209 patients with a negative Tanta University risk model had a complicated course (P<0.0001, Fisher’s exact test). The negative predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.95–0.99), the sensitivity was 0.79 and that specificity was 0.75. Conclusion: Poisoned patients with a negative Tanta University Risk Model score are unlikely to need an intensive care unit level of care.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 266-269 |
Number of pages | 4 |
Journal | Clinical Toxicology |
Volume | 61 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 2023 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Intoxication
- complication
- intensive care
- prediction
- score