Improving the establishment submodel of a forest patch model to assess the long-term protective effect of mountain forests

Simulation models such as forest patch models can be used to forecast the development of forest structural attributes over time. However, predictions of such models with respect to the impact of forest dynamics on the long-term protective effect of mountain forests may be of limited accuracy where tree regeneration is simulated with little detail. For this reason, we improved the establishment submodel of the ForClim forest patch model by implementing a more detailed representation of tree regeneration. Our refined submodel included canopy shading and ungulate browsing, two important constraints to sapling growth in mountain forests. To compare the old and the new establishment submodel of ForClim, we simulated the successional dynamics of the Stotzigwald protection forest in the Swiss Alps over a 60-year period. This forest provides protection for an important traffic route, but currently contains an alarmingly low density of tree regeneration. The comparison yielded a significantly longer regeneration period for the new model version, bringing the simulations into closer agreement with the known slow stand dynamics of mountain forests. In addition, the new model version was applied to forecast the future ability of the Stotzigwald forest to buffer the valley below from rockfall disturbance. Two scenarios were simulated: (1) canopy shading but no browsing impact, and (2) canopy shading and high browsing impact. The simulated stand structures were then compared to stand structure targets for rockfall protection, in order to assess their long-term protective effects. Under both scenarios, the initial sparse level of tree regeneration affected the long-term protective effect of the forest, which considerably declined during the first 40 years. In the complete absence of browsing, the density of small trees increased slightly after 60 years, raising hope for an eventual recovery of the protective effect. In the scenario that included browsing, however, the density of small trees remained at very low levels. With our improved establishment submodel, we provide an enhanced tool for studying the impacts of structural dynamics on the long-term protective effect of mountain forests. For certain purposes, it is important that predictive models of forest dynamics adequately represent critical processes for tree regeneration, such as sapling responses to low light levels and high browsing pressure.