Human Motion Prediction under Social Grouping Constraints

Accurate long-term prediction of human motion in populated spaces is an important but difficult task for mobile robots and intelligent vehicles. What makes this task challenging is that human motion is influenced by a large variety of factors including the person's intention, the presence, attributes, actions, social relations and social norms of other surrounding agents, and the geometry and semantics of the environment. In this paper, we consider the problem of computing human motion predictions that account for such factors. We formulate the task as an MDP planning problem with stochastic policies and propose a weighted random walk algorithm in which each agent is locally influenced by social forces from other nearby agents. The novelty of this paper is that we incorporate social grouping information into the prediction process reflecting the soft formation constraints that groups typically impose to their members' motion. We show that our method makes more accurate predictions than three state-of-the-art methods in terms of probabilistic and geometrical performance metrics.