How may external information affect traffic risk perception?

Constantinos Antoniou, Konstantinos Kostovasilis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations


More than 1.2 million people die each year on the world's roads, and between 20 and 50 million sustain injuries. Although road safety has been improving over the last decade, Greece is still by far the worst performing country among the older European Union countries. This article investigates the impact of information effects on the willingness-to-pay to reduce traffic risk. This topic has been researched for a long time, often through the theoretical construct of the “value of statistical life” (VSL) or “value of preventing a fatality” (VPF). In this research, stated preference surveys are used to infer how (true, but partial) information may influence risk valuation in general (everyday life). Random-effects ordered probit models are specified and estimated using the collected data and the distributions of the VPF for the various segments have been calculated as marginal rates of substitution among the appropriate model coefficients. The median VPF for the optimistic model was found to be equal to €2,350.000, whereas the corresponding value for the pessimistic case was equal to €3,620.000 (rounded to the closest €5,000). These model estimation results suggest that there may be a practical way to increase awareness for road safety by proper presentation of the road safety facts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)347-368
Number of pages22
JournalJournal of Transportation Safety and Security
Issue number3
StatePublished - 3 Jul 2017


  • random-effects ordered probit model
  • road safety
  • stated-preference surveys
  • value of preventing a fatality
  • value of statistical life


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