TY - JOUR
T1 - Herbaceous competition and browsing may induce arrested succession in central European forests
AU - Thrippleton, Timothy
AU - Bugmann, Harald
AU - Snell, Rebecca S.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 The Authors. Journal of Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society
PY - 2018/5
Y1 - 2018/5
N2 - Arrested succession, that is, an ecosystem permanently halted in an early successional, typically non-forested state, has been suggested to result from intense competition by understorey vegetation, high browsing pressure and additional disturbances, but the relative importance of these factors is unclear. In addition, distinguishing between permanently arrested succession or merely delayed succession may be highly challenging, if not impossible, due to the large time-scales involved. We used the dynamic vegetation model LandClim to systematically explore the effect of multiple factors on delayed and arrested succession over a time span of 1,000 years, starting from an unforested state. We included abiotic and biotic factors as well as large-scale overstorey disturbance, in four Central European landscapes. Arrested succession occurred in 1%–14% of the simulations. Among the non-arrested simulations, 95% reached a forested state (defined as ≥10% canopy cover) within 100 years. Large herbaceous biomass was the most important predictor for arrested succession, followed by browsing and large-scale disturbances. Combinations of factors were important at particular locations in the landscape, where understorey competition and browsing jointly induced a strong establishment filter. Abiotic conditions consistently influenced the probability of arrested succession, with a low probability under mesic conditions and increased likelihood in more xeric parts of the landscapes. Synthesis. We demonstrated that permanently arrested succession has the potential to occur in temperate forests, particularly under a combination of high amounts of herbaceous biomass and ungulate browsing in drought-constrained landscape positions. We thus conclude that considering environmental heterogeneity at the landscape scale is key for understanding the conditions that lead to delayed and arrested succession.
AB - Arrested succession, that is, an ecosystem permanently halted in an early successional, typically non-forested state, has been suggested to result from intense competition by understorey vegetation, high browsing pressure and additional disturbances, but the relative importance of these factors is unclear. In addition, distinguishing between permanently arrested succession or merely delayed succession may be highly challenging, if not impossible, due to the large time-scales involved. We used the dynamic vegetation model LandClim to systematically explore the effect of multiple factors on delayed and arrested succession over a time span of 1,000 years, starting from an unforested state. We included abiotic and biotic factors as well as large-scale overstorey disturbance, in four Central European landscapes. Arrested succession occurred in 1%–14% of the simulations. Among the non-arrested simulations, 95% reached a forested state (defined as ≥10% canopy cover) within 100 years. Large herbaceous biomass was the most important predictor for arrested succession, followed by browsing and large-scale disturbances. Combinations of factors were important at particular locations in the landscape, where understorey competition and browsing jointly induced a strong establishment filter. Abiotic conditions consistently influenced the probability of arrested succession, with a low probability under mesic conditions and increased likelihood in more xeric parts of the landscapes. Synthesis. We demonstrated that permanently arrested succession has the potential to occur in temperate forests, particularly under a combination of high amounts of herbaceous biomass and ungulate browsing in drought-constrained landscape positions. We thus conclude that considering environmental heterogeneity at the landscape scale is key for understanding the conditions that lead to delayed and arrested succession.
KW - arrested succession
KW - delayed succession
KW - forest landscape model
KW - plant–plant interactions
KW - recalcitrant understorey layer
KW - ungulate browsing
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85045403287&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/1365-2745.12889
DO - 10.1111/1365-2745.12889
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85045403287
SN - 0022-0477
VL - 106
SP - 1120
EP - 1132
JO - Journal of Ecology
JF - Journal of Ecology
IS - 3
ER -