TY - GEN
T1 - Generation and evaluation of photovoltaic forecasts based on freely available weather data
AU - Zeh, Alexander
AU - Hainzinger, Christoph
AU - Witzmann, Rolf
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 IEEE.
PY - 2016/7/22
Y1 - 2016/7/22
N2 - Photovoltaic forecasts are necessary in many fields of the energy industry. The rapid expansion of photovoltaic systems within the last years poses a growing problem especially for grid operators. New innovative concepts like smart storage solutions for reducing the grid load often need a generation forecast in order to be operated properly. In this work, a photovoltaic forecast based on only freely available cloud data is developed and compared to a commercially available one by evaluating their accuracy. Therefore, both forecasts are adapted to a 14 kWp photovoltaic system in Upper Bavaria, Germany. An Analysis of the results shows that both forecasts yield comparable results, but the one based on freely available data shows extreme inaccuracies in case of difficult prediction conditions like changeable cloud movement.
AB - Photovoltaic forecasts are necessary in many fields of the energy industry. The rapid expansion of photovoltaic systems within the last years poses a growing problem especially for grid operators. New innovative concepts like smart storage solutions for reducing the grid load often need a generation forecast in order to be operated properly. In this work, a photovoltaic forecast based on only freely available cloud data is developed and compared to a commercially available one by evaluating their accuracy. Therefore, both forecasts are adapted to a 14 kWp photovoltaic system in Upper Bavaria, Germany. An Analysis of the results shows that both forecasts yield comparable results, but the one based on freely available data shows extreme inaccuracies in case of difficult prediction conditions like changeable cloud movement.
KW - forecast
KW - photovoltaic forecast
KW - weather forecast
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84991295992&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/TDC.2016.7520042
DO - 10.1109/TDC.2016.7520042
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84991295992
T3 - Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society Transmission and Distribution Conference
BT - 2016 IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition, T and D 2016
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2016 IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition, T and D 2016
Y2 - 3 May 2016 through 5 May 2016
ER -
