First-passage times of regime switching models

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Abstract

The probability of a stochastic process to first breach an upper and/or a lower level is an important quantity for optimal control and risk management. We present those probabilities for regime switching Brownian motion. In the 2- and 3-state model, the Laplace transform of the (single and double barrier) first-passage times is-up to the roots of a polynomial of degree 4 (respectively 6)-derived in closed-form by solving the matrix Wiener-Hopf factorization.11The matrix Wiener-Hopf factors of regime switching models are defined via a set of quadratic matrix equations (see, e.g., London etal., 1982; Barlow etal., 1990; Kennedy and Williams, 1990; Rogers and Shi, 1994; Asmussen, 1995). This concept was expanded to regime switching jump diffusions by Jiang and Pistorius (2008). This extends single barrier results in the 2-state model by Guo (2001b). If the quotient of drift and variance is constant over all states, we show that the Laplace transform can even be inverted analytically.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)148-157
Number of pages10
JournalStatistics and Probability Letters
Volume92
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2014

Keywords

  • First-exit time
  • First-passage time
  • Markov switching
  • Option pricing
  • Regime switching
  • Wiener-Hopf factorization

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