TY - JOUR
T1 - Exploring Policy Options in Regulating Rural–Urban Migration with a Bayesian Network
T2 - A Case Study in Kazakhstan
AU - Dufhues, Thomas
AU - Buchenrieder, Gertrud
AU - Sun, Zhanli
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/6
Y1 - 2021/6
N2 - Despite the benefits associated with the free movement of people, governments often try to regulate urban immigration by constraining the agency of potential rural out-migrants in moving to cities and/or in expanding their agency to enable them to stay put. We apply an institutional framework centring on push–pull and retain–repel factors to migration intentions of potential migrants in northern Kazakhstan. We model the effects of these factors on migration intentions with Bayesian Networks and expand the baseline model with three policy scenarios. The results suggest that the effects of policies constraining urban in-migration, e.g. limiting access to affordable housing, are attenuated by social networks and reverse remittances. The supply of accessible and appropriate information on possible income and true housing costs in urban areas presents a promising road to reduce intentions of rural out-migration. Better schools and decentralised tertiary education can also reduce the migration intentions of rural residents.
AB - Despite the benefits associated with the free movement of people, governments often try to regulate urban immigration by constraining the agency of potential rural out-migrants in moving to cities and/or in expanding their agency to enable them to stay put. We apply an institutional framework centring on push–pull and retain–repel factors to migration intentions of potential migrants in northern Kazakhstan. We model the effects of these factors on migration intentions with Bayesian Networks and expand the baseline model with three policy scenarios. The results suggest that the effects of policies constraining urban in-migration, e.g. limiting access to affordable housing, are attenuated by social networks and reverse remittances. The supply of accessible and appropriate information on possible income and true housing costs in urban areas presents a promising road to reduce intentions of rural out-migration. Better schools and decentralised tertiary education can also reduce the migration intentions of rural residents.
KW - Bayesian networks
KW - Kazakhstan
KW - Migration intentions
KW - Migration policies
KW - Policy scenarios
KW - Push–pull/retain–repel factors
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85086169811&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1057/s41287-020-00280-1
DO - 10.1057/s41287-020-00280-1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85086169811
SN - 0957-8811
VL - 33
SP - 553
EP - 577
JO - European Journal of Development Research
JF - European Journal of Development Research
IS - 3
ER -