Evolutionary fleet development considering airport capacity limitations and their mitigation

Limited airport capacities pose a constraint on future air traffic growth. Although the current pandemic eased this problem for some years, with growing post-crisis air traffic it will probably return and with it the demand for solutions. This paper aims to integrate airport capacity limitations as a constraint to air traffic growth into an evolutionary fleet development model for global commercial airline fleets. Two operational mechanisms to mitigate such constraints are introduced, both leading to changes in fleet and network structures as compared to unconstrained development. The first strategy foresees the use of aircraft with larger seating capacities. The second one focuses on shifting traffic to unconstrained airports. Both strategies already find use in aviation to different extents. Finally, the actual mitigation strategy to be applied is selected via an optimization function. The results of this modeling approach are shown on a global level. They indicate the buildup of significant reductions in revenue passenger kilometers, flown passengers and movements as compared to unconstrained airport capacities. In future work, the proposed methodology is intended to quantify possible effects of limited airport capacities on the air transport network and fleet. At the same time, the various assumptions made and the scenario-based nature of the model require the derivation of sensitivities toward these uncertainties.