Evidence for enhanced debris-flow activity in the Northern Calcareous Alps since the 1980s (Plansee, Austria)

Debris flows are among the most important natural hazards. The Northern Calcareous Alps with their susceptible lithology are especially affected by a double digit number of major hazard events per year. It is hypothesised that debris-flow intensity has increased significantly in the last decades in the Northern Calcareous Alps coincident to increased rainstorm frequencies, but yet there is only limited evidence. The Plansee catchment exposes extreme debris-flow activity due to the intensely jointed Upper Triassic Hauptdolomit lithology, being responsible for most of the debris-flow activity in the Northern Calcareous Alps. The debris flows feed into a closed sediment system, the Plansee Lake, where Holocene/Lateglacial sedimentation rates, rates since the late 1940s and recent rates can be inferred accurately. Using aerial photos and field mapping, the temporal and spatial development of eight active debris-flow fans is reconstructed in six time intervals from 1947, 1952, 1971, 1979, 1987, 2000 and 2010 and mean annual debris-flow volumes are calculated. These are compared with mean Holocene/Lateglacial debris-flow volumes derived from the most prominent cone whose contact with the underlying till is revealed by electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). Debris-flow activity there increased by a factor of 10 from 1947–1952 (0.23 ± 0.07 · 10³ m³/yr) to 1987–2000 (2.41 ± 0.66 · 10³ m³/yr). Mean post-1980 rates from all eight fans exceed pre-1980 rates by a factor of more than three coinciding with enhanced rainstorm activity recorded at meteorological stations in the Northern Calcareous Alps. The frequency of rain storms (def. 35 mm/d) has increased in the study area on average by 10% per decade and has nearly doubled since 1921. Recent debris-flow activity is also 2–3 times higher than mean Holocene/Lateglacial rates. The strong correlation between the non-vegetated catchment area and the annual debris-flow volume might indicate a decadal positive feedback between enhanced rainstorm activity and debris flows. Here we investigate the temporal and spatial development of debris-flow fans to better understand the sensitivity of alpine catchments to heavy rainfall events in the context of climate change.