Evaluation of CMIP5 climate models using historical surface air temperatures in central asia

Yufei Xiong, Zhijie Ta, Miao Gan, Meilin Yang, Xi Chen, Ruide Yu, Markus Disse, Yang Yu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

Using historical data compiled by the Climate Research Unit, spatial and temporal analysis, trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and Taylor diagram analysis were applied to test the ability of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to accurately simulate the annual mean surface air temperature in central Asia from the perspective of the average climate state and climate variability. Results show that each model can reasonably capture the spatial distribution characteristics of the surface air temperature in central Asia but cannot accurately describe the regional details of climate change impacts. Some of the studied models, including CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-H, could better simulate the highand low-value centers and the contour distribution of the surface air temperature. Taylor diagram analysis showed that the root mean square errors of all models were less than 3, the standard deviations were between 8.36 and 13.45, and the spatial correlation coefficients were greater than 0.96. EOF analysis showed that the multi-model ensemble can accurately reproduce the surface air temperature characteristics in central Asia from 1901 to 2005, including the rising periods and the fluctuations of the north and south inversion phases. Overall, this study provides a valuable reference for future climate prediction studies in central Asia.

Original languageEnglish
Article number308
JournalAtmosphere
Volume12
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2021

Keywords

  • Air surface temperature
  • CMIP5
  • Central Asia
  • Performance evaluation

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