TY - GEN
T1 - Discretization of structural reliability problems
T2 - 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012
AU - Zwirglmaier, Kilian
AU - Straub, Daniel
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - Bayesian networks (BNs) are a powerful tool for efficiently representing joint probability distributions and updating probabilities in near real-time. We combine BNs with structural reliability concepts to develop a warning system for runway overrun of a landing aircraft, one of the most critical accident types in civil aviation. This warning system allows to use currently available measurements of the aircraft weight, the head wind and the approach speed to update the probability of runway overrun in-flight. Based on the probability, the system informs the pilots whether or not it is save to land. One of the key challenges when treating structural reliability problems in a discrete BN framework is the discretization of the continuous outcome space of the reliability problem. We apply a heuristic developed in Zwirglmaier and Straub (2014) to discretize the reliability problem, such that the discretization error is kept small with only a moderate number of discretization intervals.
AB - Bayesian networks (BNs) are a powerful tool for efficiently representing joint probability distributions and updating probabilities in near real-time. We combine BNs with structural reliability concepts to develop a warning system for runway overrun of a landing aircraft, one of the most critical accident types in civil aviation. This warning system allows to use currently available measurements of the aircraft weight, the head wind and the approach speed to update the probability of runway overrun in-flight. Based on the probability, the system informs the pilots whether or not it is save to land. One of the key challenges when treating structural reliability problems in a discrete BN framework is the discretization of the continuous outcome space of the reliability problem. We apply a heuristic developed in Zwirglmaier and Straub (2014) to discretize the reliability problem, such that the discretization error is kept small with only a moderate number of discretization intervals.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84978726691
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84978726691
T3 - 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015
BT - 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015
PB - University of British Columbia
Y2 - 12 July 2015 through 15 July 2015
ER -