Determining the Relationship between Hot Flushes and LH Pulses in Menopausal Women Using Mathematical Modeling

Background: Hypothalamic kisspeptin/neurokinin B/dynorphin (KNDy) neurones regulate LH pulsatility. It is widely accepted that the menopausal hot flush (HF) consistently synchronizes with the LH pulse, implicating the hypothalamic KNDy neurones in generating LH pulsatility and HF. Using a modern immunoassay and mathematical modeling, we investigated if the HF and LH pulse were consistently synchronized in menopausal women. Methods: Eleven menopausal women (51 to 62 years of age and experiencing ≥7 HF in 24 hours) participated in an 8-hour study. Subjects self-reported HF and underwent peripheral blood sampling every 10 minutes. LH pulsatility was determined using two mathematical models: blinded deconvolution analysis and Bayesian spectrum analysis. The probability that the LH pulse and HF event intervals matched was estimated using the interval distributions observed in our data. Results: Ninety-six HFs were self-reported, and 82 LH pulses were identified by blinded deconvolution analysis. Using both models, the probability that the two event intervals matched was low in the majority of participants (mean P = 0.24; P = 1 reflects perfect association). Interpretation: Our data challenge the widely accepted dogma that HFs consistently synchronize with an LH pulse and therefore have clinically important therapeutic and mechanistic implications.