Demand elasticities for fresh meat and welfare effects of meat taxes in Germany

This paper assesses the effect of different meat tax designs in Germany including increasing the value-added tax as well as two climate-gas-emission-sensitive excise tax scenarios. For the simulation study, we first estimate price and expenditure elasticities for fresh meat for different household types using data from the GfK ConsumerScan FreshFood panel over the period 2012–14. The estimated elasticities are used to derive budget and welfare effects for the tax scenarios. A general rise in the value-added tax from 7% to 19% leads to a welfare loss of 0.83 euros per household per month. Disentangling the effect by household group according to income and age shows that low-income and older households experience a higher welfare loss and bear a larger tax burden relative to their income compared to low-income and younger households, respectively. Comparing the different taxation scenarios highlights the comparative efficiency of excise taxes and the importance to consider effects on older households.