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Crafting Future Scenarios with the Help of AI: Potentials of a Hybrid Delphi Expert Panel

  • Roland M. Mueller
  • , Katja Thoring
  • , Hermann W. Klöckner
  • , Kai R. Larsen
  • Berlin School of Economics and Law
  • Anhalt University of Applied Sciences
  • University of Colorado Boulder

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper examines the potential of ChatGPT to enhance the established Delphi method by providing additional AI-infused expertise. We investigated several aspects of the Delphi method independently: the integration of abstract AI-infused expertise perspectives, the generation of an AI “clone” (digital twin) of a human expert, the rating of scenarios through AI, and the capability of AI to iterate future scenarios and to provide qualitative feedback. The findings suggest that AI systems can augment a Delphi panel by providing new perspectives but cannot replace individual human experts and their respective expertise. The insights shall inform other researchers who want to conduct hybrid Delphi studies with AI-infused expertise. In that sense, with this paper, we aim to lay the foundation for a hybrid Delphi study method and suggest actionable recommendations.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 57th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2024
EditorsTung X. Bui
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Pages6458-6467
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780998133171
StatePublished - 2024
Event57th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2024 - Honolulu, United States
Duration: 3 Jan 20246 Jan 2024

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
ISSN (Print)1530-1605

Conference

Conference57th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2024
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityHonolulu
Period3/01/246/01/24

Keywords

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • ChatGPT
  • Delphi Method
  • Futurology
  • Scenario Planning

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