Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models

Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Klaus Dietz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

87 Scopus citations

Abstract

We consider a simple unstructured individual based stochastic epidemic model with contact tracing. Even in the onset of the epidemic, contact tracing implies that infected individuals do not act independent of each other. Nevertheless, it is possible to analyze the embedded non-stationary Galton-Watson process. Based upon this analysis, threshold theorems and also the probability for major outbreaks can be derived. Furthermore, it is possible to obtain a deterministic model that approximates the stochastic process, and in this way, to determine the prevalence of disease in the quasi-stationary state and to investigate the dynamics of the epidemic. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)39-64
Number of pages26
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume164
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2000
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Contact tracing
  • Epidemic models
  • Galton-Watson process
  • Quasi-stationary state
  • Threshold theorem

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