Clinical response to induction chemotherapy predicts local control and long-term survival in multimodal treatment of patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer

Purpose: From 1991 to 1994 we performed a phase II study with intensive preoperative chemoradiation in locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the esophagus. We now report on a multivariate analysis of prognostic factors based on the long-term results at a median follow-up of 6.5 years. Patients and methods: Eighty-eight patients were treated. Prognostic factors for overall survival and local tumor control were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: Median overall survival reached 17 months, and the survival rate at 5 years was 22% (95%-confidence interval: 18-26%). Response to induction chemotherapy was the only independent factor predicting local tumor control and - beside weight loss prior to treatment - it also proved to be an independent prognostic factor for long-term survival. Conclusions: Intensive chemoradiation followed by surgery seems to be appropriate to improve long-term survival of high-risk patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer. In our trial, local tumor control and prognosis were best correlated with response to induction chemotherapy. These results may help to guide decisions regarding surgery in multimodal treatment of EC. Further efforts are needed to increase the number of treatment responders and to predict tumors not responding to chemo(radio)therapy earlier.