TY - JOUR
T1 - Characteristics of heart beat intervals and prediction of death
AU - Hallstrom, Alfred P.
AU - Stein, Phyllis K.
AU - Schneider, Raphael
AU - Hodges, Morrison
AU - Schmidt, Georg
AU - Ulm, Kurt
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported by NHLBI RO-3 Grant #HL53776, NHLBI RO-3 Grant HL 53776, and by a grant from Bristol-Myers Squibb.
PY - 2005/4/8
Y1 - 2005/4/8
N2 - Objective: To assess the value for improving risk stratification of measures, unadjusted and adjusted for heart rate, of heart rate variability (HRV) and heart rate turbulence (HRT) based on 2- to 24-h ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings; and to relate this to the decision to use an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) and the attendant consequences on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Background: Risk stratification for high risk or low risk of lethal ventricular arrhythmic events, and hence for a decision about defibrillator implant, most commonly utilizes the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Electrocardiographic (ECG) approaches include 24-h ambulatory ECG recordings, with counts of ventricular premature contractions (VPCs), measures of heart rate variability (HRV), and heart rate turbulence (HRT). HRT has two components: turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS). Methods and results: We evaluated the qualifying ambulatory ECG recordings from 744 patients in the active treatment arms of the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial (CAST). Beat characteristics, VPC counts, normal-to-normal beat intervals, and time-domain measures of HRV and HRT were calculated. Tachograms were rescaled to a heart rate of 75 and the resulting "normalized" measures evaluated as risk predictors for death, compared to unnormalized measures. Measures based on 2-h ECGs were also evaluated as risk predictors. The most powerful univariate predictor of survival was the normalized turbulence slope. The best multivariate prediction model had six components: history of angina, hypertension, diabetes, and absence of post-myocardial infarction revascularization, the log of LVEF, normalized TS, HR, and an interaction term of HR and normalized TS. Gains in effectiveness from use of this model cost between $0 and $4000 per year of life saved. Conclusions: Turbulence slope substantially exceeded other ECG-based measures in improving prediction of subsequent death in models which included LVEF, and other clinical parameters. Use of this model would improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the ICD.
AB - Objective: To assess the value for improving risk stratification of measures, unadjusted and adjusted for heart rate, of heart rate variability (HRV) and heart rate turbulence (HRT) based on 2- to 24-h ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings; and to relate this to the decision to use an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) and the attendant consequences on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Background: Risk stratification for high risk or low risk of lethal ventricular arrhythmic events, and hence for a decision about defibrillator implant, most commonly utilizes the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Electrocardiographic (ECG) approaches include 24-h ambulatory ECG recordings, with counts of ventricular premature contractions (VPCs), measures of heart rate variability (HRV), and heart rate turbulence (HRT). HRT has two components: turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS). Methods and results: We evaluated the qualifying ambulatory ECG recordings from 744 patients in the active treatment arms of the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial (CAST). Beat characteristics, VPC counts, normal-to-normal beat intervals, and time-domain measures of HRV and HRT were calculated. Tachograms were rescaled to a heart rate of 75 and the resulting "normalized" measures evaluated as risk predictors for death, compared to unnormalized measures. Measures based on 2-h ECGs were also evaluated as risk predictors. The most powerful univariate predictor of survival was the normalized turbulence slope. The best multivariate prediction model had six components: history of angina, hypertension, diabetes, and absence of post-myocardial infarction revascularization, the log of LVEF, normalized TS, HR, and an interaction term of HR and normalized TS. Gains in effectiveness from use of this model cost between $0 and $4000 per year of life saved. Conclusions: Turbulence slope substantially exceeded other ECG-based measures in improving prediction of subsequent death in models which included LVEF, and other clinical parameters. Use of this model would improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the ICD.
KW - Ambulatory electrocardiography
KW - Coronary heart disease
KW - Implanted cardiac defibrillator
KW - Myocardial infarction
KW - Risk stratification
KW - Sudden cardiac death
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=16844383901&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2004.05.047
DO - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2004.05.047
M3 - Article
C2 - 15820283
AN - SCOPUS:16844383901
SN - 0167-5273
VL - 100
SP - 37
EP - 45
JO - International Journal of Cardiology
JF - International Journal of Cardiology
IS - 1
ER -
