Change in Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction Following First Myocardial Infarction and Outcome

Objectives: This study hypothesizes that a lack of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) recovery after myocardial infarction (MI) would be associated with a poor outcome. Background: A reduced LVEF early after MI identifies patients at risk of adverse outcomes. Whether the change in LVEF in the weeks to months following MI provides additional information on prognosis is less certain. Methods: Change in LVEF between the early (2 to 7 days) and later (2 to 12 weeks) post-MI periods in patients with a first MI was assessed in 3 independent cohorts (REFINE [Risk Estimation Following Infarction Noninvasive Evaluation]; CARISMA [Cardiac Arrhythmia and Risk Stratification after Myocardial Infarction]; ISAR [Improved Stratification of Autonomy Regulation]). Patients were categorized as having no recovery (Δ ≤0%), a modest increase (Δ 1% to 9%), or a large increase (Δ ≥10%) in LVEF. The relationship between change in LVEF and risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) and all-cause mortality were assessed in Cox multivariable models. Results: In REFINE, patients with no LVEF recovery had a higher risk of sudden cardiac arrest (hazard ratio: 5.8; 95% confidence interval: 2.1 to 16.6; p = 0.001) and death (hazard ratio: 3.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 10.1; p < 0.001), independent of revascularization, baseline LVEF, and medical therapy compared with patients with recovery. Similar findings were observed in the other cohorts. LVEF reassessments beyond 6 weeks post-MI were more predictive of outcome than were earlier reassessments. Conclusions: The degree of LVEF recovery after a first MI provides important prognostic information. Patients with no recovery in LVEF after MI are at high risk of sudden cardiac arrest events and death.