Bayesian networks to quantify the reliability of a debris flow alarm system

M. Sättele, M. Bründl, D. Straub

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Warning and alarm systems are part of an integrative approach to risk management for natural hazards that supplement protective measures such as rock fall nets, dams and galleries. To integrate warning and alarms systems as standard measures in a risk management approach, their reliability should be quantified. In this paper, selected methods are applied to quantify the reliability of an active threshold-based debris flow alarm system. The reliability is defined as the ability of the system to detect dangerous debris flow events, to issue alarms in a timely manner and to avoid false alarms. Bayesian networks are applied to probabilistically model the considered alarm system and to calculate its overall reliability. The final system reliability is expressed in terms of the receiver operator characteristics, which allow the identification of the optimal trade-off between the probability of detection and the probability of false alarms.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, ICOSSAR 2013
Pages3661-3668
Number of pages8
StatePublished - 2013
Event11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, ICOSSAR 2013 - New York, NY, United States
Duration: 16 Jun 201320 Jun 2013

Publication series

NameSafety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, ICOSSAR 2013

Conference

Conference11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, ICOSSAR 2013
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityNew York, NY
Period16/06/1320/06/13

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