Bakken production outlook sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

We offer a preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of Bakken oil production to a variety of factors using the model from Ikonnikova et al (2017). The oil price is probably the single most important factor that can drive cumulative Bakken production (2015-2045) up or down as much as 50%. Other factors such as the implementation of technology that can reduce costs, increase productivity, or both also impact the production outlook but less than the oil price. However, these factors require further investigation to confirm the reasonableness of the ranges we tested, and, more importantly, to better represent the interactions among costs, productivity, and the oil price. Scenarios that combine multiple factors and capture these interactions are likely to yield more realistic outlooks.