TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessment of effective mitigation and prediction of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany using demographic information and spatial resolution
AU - Kühn, Martin J.
AU - Abele, Daniel
AU - Mitra, Tanmay
AU - Koslow, Wadim
AU - Abedi, Majid
AU - Rack, Kathrin
AU - Siggel, Martin
AU - Khailaie, Sahamoddin
AU - Klitz, Margrit
AU - Binder, Sebastian
AU - Spataro, Luca
AU - Gilg, Jonas
AU - Kleinert, Jan
AU - Häberle, Matthias
AU - Plötzke, Lena
AU - Spinner, Christoph D.
AU - Stecher, Melanie
AU - Zhu, Xiao Xiang
AU - Basermann, Achim
AU - Meyer-Hermann, Michael
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021
PY - 2021/9
Y1 - 2021/9
N2 - Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases as long as no vaccination or outstanding medical treatments are available. We assess the effectiveness of the sets of non-pharmaceutical interventions that were in place during the course of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in Germany. Our results are based on hybrid models, combining SIR-type models on local scales with spatial resolution. In order to account for the age-dependence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we include realistic prepandemic and recently recorded contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions will occur on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. In order to account for spatial heterogeneity, we use a graph approach and we include high-quality information on commuting activities combined with traveling information from social networks. The remaining uncertainty will be accounted for by a large number of randomized simulation runs. Based on the derived factors for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions over the past months, we provide different forecast scenarios for the upcoming time.
AB - Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases as long as no vaccination or outstanding medical treatments are available. We assess the effectiveness of the sets of non-pharmaceutical interventions that were in place during the course of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in Germany. Our results are based on hybrid models, combining SIR-type models on local scales with spatial resolution. In order to account for the age-dependence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we include realistic prepandemic and recently recorded contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions will occur on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. In order to account for spatial heterogeneity, we use a graph approach and we include high-quality information on commuting activities combined with traveling information from social networks. The remaining uncertainty will be accounted for by a large number of randomized simulation runs. Based on the derived factors for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions over the past months, we provide different forecast scenarios for the upcoming time.
KW - Coronavirus disease
KW - Covid-19
KW - Forecast
KW - Mitigation
KW - Non-pharmaceutical interventions
KW - SARS-CoV-2
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85109612244&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108648
DO - 10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108648
M3 - Article
C2 - 34216635
AN - SCOPUS:85109612244
SN - 0025-5564
VL - 339
JO - Mathematical Biosciences
JF - Mathematical Biosciences
M1 - 108648
ER -