Agriculture under varied general conditions - Consequences of varied consumption habits and of technical progress

Since the beginning of the ninties meat consumption is decreasing in Germany. This trend results in negative effects concerning occupation and income in agriculture. Technical progress being effective now as before still intensifies this development. Nevertheless, decreasing production and consumption of meat results in a reduction of the greenhouse effect, too. The saving effect, however, is relatively small in comparison to activities being based on the direct consumption of fossil energy resources. Referring to food production, surpluses are caused in rural areas, in contrast deficits arise in areas of industrial and urban concentration. The consequence is the necessity of food transports. In this connection studies show that transports by lorry over small distances lead to costs anc emissions of CO₂ similar to transports by ship between continents. The above-mentioned "surplus production" in rural areas allow extensive opportunities of work and income. This is not inconsistent with the efforts to get a higher income by regional producer-consumer conceptions. At present time it is not to be estimated how far the volume of transport in general and the food transports in particular will be reduced due to changing general conditions (e.g. increasing the price of energy). Generally the standards for agriculture concerning environmental quality may raise. In addition positive as well as negative effects are expected to be internalized increasingly. However, it depends on further agricultural policy how far landscape would be changed.