A quantitative scenario-based fleet evolutionary framework for the assessment of the global air transportation network

This paper lays the foundations of a fleet evolutionary macro level air transportation network analysis. Combining a complex systems theory approach of investigating the global air transportation network with a system dynamics based fleet evolutionary model, an analysis of the global air transportation network on a macro level is made possible. This enables the assessment of integrating new technologies on a network level within the early aircraft conceptual design phase. At the core of this paper, we present the latest development of a novel higher fidelity system dynamics based fleet evolutionary model that would provide adequate resolution for an integration with the macro level air transportation network model. Results show that increasing the route modelling fidelity affects the fleet evolution, both in their magnitude and structure. Correspondingly, the higher fidelity fleet evolutionary model is better able to account for the network diversity of the global air transportation network. The implementation of network development functions to map the fleet evolution to network structure provides a comprehensive insight to assess the global air transportation network.