A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

Marcel Van Oijen; Christian Beer; Wolfgang Cramer; Anja Rammig; Markus Reichstein; Susanne Rolinski; Jean Francois Soussana

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032

A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

Marcel Van Oijen, Christian Beer, Wolfgang Cramer, Anja Rammig, Markus Reichstein, Susanne Rolinski, Jean Francois Soussana

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

32 Scopus citations

Abstract

We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series - modelled or measured - of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.

Original language	English
Article number	015032
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	8
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032
State	Published - Mar 2013
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

carbon cycle
drought
uncertainty
vulnerability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032

Cite this

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abstract = "We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series - modelled or measured - of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.",

keywords = "carbon cycle, drought, uncertainty, vulnerability",

author = "{Van Oijen}, Marcel and Christian Beer and Wolfgang Cramer and Anja Rammig and Markus Reichstein and Susanne Rolinski and Soussana, {Jean Francois}",

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AU - Van Oijen, Marcel

AU - Beer, Christian

AU - Cramer, Wolfgang

AU - Rammig, Anja

AU - Reichstein, Markus

AU - Rolinski, Susanne

AU - Soussana, Jean Francois

PY - 2013/3

Y1 - 2013/3

N2 - We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series - modelled or measured - of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.

AB - We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series - modelled or measured - of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.

KW - carbon cycle

KW - drought

KW - uncertainty

KW - vulnerability

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U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032

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JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

IS - 1

M1 - 015032

ER -

A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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