A multi-scale analysis of western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics

Context: Forest insect outbreaks are influenced by ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, including host-insect interactions within stands and across landscapes that are modified by regional-scale variations in climate. These drivers of outbreak dynamics are not well understood for the western spruce budworm, a defoliator that is native to forests of western North America. Objectives: Our aim was to assess how processes across multiple spatial scales drive western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics. Our objective was to assess the relative importance and influence of a set of factors covering the stand, landscape, and regional scales for explaining spatiotemporal outbreak patterns in British Columbia, Canada. Methods: We used generalized linear mixed effect models within a multi-model interference framework to relate annual budworm infestation mapped from Landsat time series (1996–2012) to sets of stand-, landscape-, and regional-scale factors derived from forest inventory data, GIS analyses, and climate models. Results: Outbreak patterns were explained well by our model (R² = 93%). The most important predictors of infestation probability were the proximity to infestations in the previous year, landscape-scale host abundance, and dry autumn conditions. While stand characteristics were overall less important predictors, we did find infestations were more likely amongst pure Douglas-fir stands with low site indices and high crown closure. Conclusions: Our findings add to growing empirical evidence that insect outbreak dynamics are driven by multi-scaled processes. Forest management planning to mitigate the impacts of budworm outbreaks should thus consider landscape- and regional-scale factors in addition to stand-scale factors.