A conceptual model for simulating farmer decisions and land use change

The development of many agricultural regions is uncertain due to current and future changes in economic, social and ecological factors and the complexity of human-landscape interactions. The largest impact on landscapes in agricultural regions is through land use by farmers. To study the long-term viability and possible emerging behaviour of an entire landscape including farmers, a conceptional model for the development of a multi-agent human-biophysical simulation model is introduced. The model integrates a domain model with three external individual biophysical, social and economic models. The domain entities and interactions of entities are described in the domain model. Farmers are considered as one of the domain agents who communicate, select and adopt management strategies. Data exchange between the domain model and other external models is through a model controller. A concept of 'Capacities and Constraints' of biophysical, economic and social components is proposed as an underlying framework for the model to manage the resources of components. A Course of Action (COA) approach is used to describe the simulation of yearly farming activities and processes incorporating time-slicing of farmer activities during the year. We present a conceptual model which builds the basis for a simulation model to analyse the long-term viability of an agricultural region with scenarios on land-use change, salinity risk perception and management, future climate change, the introduction and adoption of new technologies, changes in policy, markets, social networks, social value evolution, and township functions. The model will enable the stakeholders such as farmers, their advisers, catchment managers and policy makers to understand the consequences of farmer decision-making and various management approaches on long-term viability of an entire agricultural region.