A Bayesian network framework for post-earthquake infrastructure system performance assessment

M. T. Bensi, A. Der Kiureghian, D. Straub

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

17 Scopus citations

Abstract

We are currently working toward the development of a probabilistic decision-support system (DSS) for near-real time emergency response and recovery following a seismic event. We utilize a Bayesian Network (BN) framework for assessing the performance of spatially distributed infrastructure systems subjected to seismic hazards. BNs have many valuable characteristics (e.g. they are graphical, adaptable, efficient, and enable Bayesian updating) that make them well-suited for such an application. We model seismic demands on an infrastructure system by constructing a BN model of ground motion intensity as a spatially distributed random field. In this paper we present this seismic demand model with recent enhancements including the addition of a finite source model. The performance of infrastructure system components and the overall system is modeled using fragility functions and BN system connectivity formulations. An example application to a hypothetical transportation system is presented to illustrate the power and value of the proposed BN framework.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTCLEE 2009
Subtitle of host publicationLifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment
Pages104
Number of pages1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2009
Event2009 ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering Conference, TCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment - Oakland, CA, United States
Duration: 28 Jun 20091 Jul 2009

Publication series

NameTCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment
Volume357

Conference

Conference2009 ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering Conference, TCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityOakland, CA
Period28/06/091/07/09

Keywords

  • Assessment
  • Bayesian analysis
  • Earthquakes
  • Infrastructure

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