Zum optimalen zieldurchmesser bei fluktuierendem holzpreis - Eine studie am beispiel von kiefern-überhältern (Pinus sylvestris L.)

This paper analyses whether the utilisation of the volatility of stumpage prices produces an economic advantage. Basing on 1000 simulations we investigated a strategy that considers harvest only if the current stumpage price is above a certain price limit. As a consequence of this strategy the harvest occurred on average 9.1 years later. However, despite the delay of harvest the on average higher stumpage price resulted in a significantly higher net present value of leaving a tree compared with that basing on constant stumpage price. Due to the stochastic variation of stumpage prices the variation of net present value increased when net value of the standards increased. The frequency of negative net present value was lower for faster growing trees. Therefore it was concluded that the risk occurring by the stochastic variation of stumpage prices is lower for a faster growing tree.